Older patients face varying recovery trajectories after major surgery, affecting their independence long-term.

• Five recovery patterns identified: routine (11.7%), slow (56.4%), protracted (6.9%), chronically dependent (21.9%), and loss of independence (3.1%).
• Key risk factors for independence loss include older age, high comorbidity score, urgent surgeries, frailty, and major complications.

This model aids in selecting patients and informing them about potential needs post-surgery.

• A publicly available risk prediction tool supports clinicians in decision-making regarding patient care.