Development of a Mortality Risk Calculator for Interhospital Transfer of Unseen General Surgery Patients

Development of a risk calculator using 12 variables showed excellent predictive ability for mortality among unseen emergency general surgery patients at the time of interhospital transfer. With a mortality rate of 6.0%, the model demonstrated high performance metrics with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.851, sensitivity of 0.90, specificity of 0.67, and balanced accuracy of 0.79. This tool could aid in patient triage, resource allocation, and standardizing care.